OK
http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/
Websites
Runtime: 1.6s
On November 23, 2024, 09:09 AM UTC, http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/ was accessible when tested on AS9269 in Hong Kong.
Failures
HTTP Experiment
null
DNS Experiment
null
Control
null
DNS Queries
Resolver:
172.71.217.32
Query:
IN A francis-lui.blogspot.com
Engine:
system
Name
Class
TTL
Type
DATA
@
IN
A
142.250.199.65
Query:
IN AAAA francis-lui.blogspot.com
Engine:
system
Name
Class
TTL
Type
DATA
@
IN
AAAA
2404:6800:4005:827::2001
TCP Connections
Connection to 2404:6800:4005:827::2001:80 was blocked.
Connection to 142.250.199.65:80 succeeded.
HTTP Requests
URL
GET http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/
Response Headers
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用經濟學做眼睛
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>11/22/2024</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2024/11/blog-post_22.html'>如何搶人才 先讀《敢為天下先》 (雷鼎鳴)</a>
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<p> <span style="background-color: #f4f4f4; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">特區政府把搶人才看作是重要任務，這是對的，事關全中國發展大計的布局，香港實不能辜負這期許。但怎麼做才能更有成效？我們是要參考已知的成功及失敗經驗。</span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國曾經是世界最能吸引人才的國家，近年排華，是自殘行為，但美國的一些優點，卻不應排斥。美國之所以能成為強國，關鍵之一是能保持開放態度，歡迎各國精英在那裏安身立命。她用的主要工具是歡迎留學生到彼邦就讀，但過程你可以說她聰明，也可說她虛偽。被大學錄取了的外國學生，要先到領事館申請簽證，領事問你畢業時會否留在美國，你若說很仰慕美國，畢業時想留在那裏呼吸自由空氣，那麼你幾乎必然得不到簽證；你要誓神劈願的說要回到祖國服務，領事才會批准你。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">科大創校歷史 屬教育界奇迹</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p data-admap="ad_MobileInArticle" id="ad_MobileInArticle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">不過，到你學成畢業時，美國社會卻會擇優而噬，歡迎人才留下，道行較低的當然可自行離去。留在美國的，要先申請一些專為人才而設的簽證，僱主一定要證明所僱之人是他們能找到的最有能力之人。為何整個程序有助美國吸納天下英才？讀者大可自行領會其奧妙處。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">其實香港在吸納人才上，也積累到不少重要的經驗。香港科技大學在創校後不到幾年，已廣被世界教育界及學術界看成是奇迹。在</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">90<span lang="ZH-TW">年代以前，香港並無大學在世界被認為是一流大學，更遑論是研究型大學。科大的經驗亦有幾位創校的功臣寫而成書，吳家瑋校長的《同創》、孔憲鐸副校長的《背水一戰》等，早已是內地高校校長的寶典。今年創校學術副校長錢致榕剛出版的《敢為天下先</span>--<span lang="ZH-TW">三年建成港科大》，同樣記述着一段動人歷史。當中關於如何招聘到世界頂尖人才到港工作，及如何從無到有一步到位創立一所知名學府，條陳出多項寶貴經驗，極值得各界參考。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">錢致榕覓人才 貢獻不可磨滅</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">大學最重要的是大師，不是大樓，這幾乎已是學術界的共識了。錢致榕在創校期間，身兼着為科大招聘頂尖人才的任務，確實作出過不可磨滅的貢獻。在上世紀</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">80<span lang="ZH-TW">、</span>90<span lang="ZH-TW">年代的北美洲學術界，尤其是華人圈子中，科大的創立是一件劃時代的大事，備受關注。一方面不少名重學林的教授頗為好奇，科大有否向其招過手，廣泛被認作是否有江湖地位的重要標準，我當年在美國對此知之所詳。但同時也有一大批「二打六」對形勢沒看清楚，以為新學校必會求着他們加入，今天的香港其實也有相近情況。錢致榕當時也浪費過一些時間，把這些人排除掉。但我捧讀其書，問為甚麼他能成功一個一個的說服了一大批珍惜名聲的大師到來加盟，我看除了他本人便是一名卓有成就的學者受人尊重外，最重要的是他能把自己的夢想感染到一代學者。甚麼夢想？便是做一些前人從未做到過的事，而且提供條件讓他們去圓夢，金錢報酬倒不是决定性的。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">這不能只是空話。錢怎樣把原來是加州理工學院圖書館副館長周敏民，拉到科大當圖書館館長？錢就是要求她把科大圖書館造成一個現代圖書科技的櫥窗、最現代化的圖書館，又建成了世界第一個中文檢目的系統。就算是今天，我到科大圖書館，依然感到它是世上最使人舒適好用的圖書館，而我在世界各地，是去過無數圖書館的。也要知道，周館長是科大工程學院創院院長張信剛的夫人，張未決定是否來科大以前，周經過十多小時與錢的長談後，已一口答應到科大，丈夫如何決定也不管了。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">另一例子是計算機主任艾偉林（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Max Joey<span lang="ZH-TW">）。他是錢從美國找來的科大幕後大功臣。他的任務是甚麼？同樣是劃時代的。錢從剛在中大上任的校長高錕了解過光纖後，對艾的要求是每一個學生宿舍的房間都要有兩個光纖插頭，每一個教員宿舍單位的書房及大廳也要有光纖，辦公室更不在話下。當時這是世界所有大學第一次有的創舉，做得到便可在行內名留青史。</span>3<span lang="ZH-TW">年內，艾偉林也驕傲的告訴錢，他成功了！當然，這也得到大東電報局提供給科大的</span>T1<span lang="ZH-TW">綫路，其容量還遠高於美國五角大廈的綫路！</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">招聘人才不可有種族主義，要以崇高的學術與教育目標去吸引人。我有位化學系的舊同事、日裔學者平岡弘之教授，便完全投入科大的工作。在</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">1991<span lang="ZH-TW">年</span>10<span lang="ZH-TW">月</span>10<span lang="ZH-TW">日科大開學典禮那天（我也有參與這典禮），平岡教授的夫人盛裝參加，她告訴錢致榕，「我想讓你知道，這是我一生中最幸福的一天。」她是為丈夫能重返東方而感到幸福，但使人悲哀的，是在同一天，她感到不適昏倒後，便再沒有醒來。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">據理力爭 校舍設計終符要求</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">說大師比大樓重要，並不等於大樓沒有意義。當時香港的建築師不懂得研究型大學的要求，設計實驗室時，有很多大型的教學型實驗室，卻只有少數用作研究的小實驗室。殊不知現代研究的模式主要是一名教授帶領着博士生、博士後在自己個人的實驗室工作，每位教授一個實驗室。若缺乏這些小實驗室的硬件，科學家根本工作不了，最終會跑掉。錢與校方也據理力爭，終於把原方案推翻掉，但建築成本劇增，引起後來的所謂「超支」風波，但這完全是值得的，若大樓設計錯誤，最終代價更大。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">政府官員讀一讀錢致榕這本著作，會有很多的感悟！</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2024-11-22)</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>11/15/2024</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2024/11/blog-post_15.html'>狂人明年上台 世界新時代開始？(雷鼎鳴)</a>
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<p> </p><p style="background: #F4F4F4; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">特朗普（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Donald Trump<span lang="ZH-TW">）入主白宮後，會否是世界新時代的一個開始，全球政經格局蛻變成一個我們久未見過的樣子？</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">這不能排除的新格局是美國重回上世紀</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">30<span lang="ZH-TW">年代所奉行的孤立主義。當時美國雖是經濟第一大國，但自身受困於大蕭條，對其他國家事務不感興趣，軍事力量也遠遜德國與日本，殊不願與她們開啟戰事。英國其時已是帝國的黃昏，鎮不住場面，沒有武林盟主主持大局，第二次世界大戰終於爆發。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">此種由於缺乏有力及公平的盟主維護穩定所導致的亂世，史稱「金德爾伯格陷阱」（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">Kindleberger Trap<span lang="ZH-TW">，</span>Charles Kindleberger<span lang="ZH-TW">是戰後馬歇爾計劃的策略締造者、麻省理工經濟學教授）。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p data-admap="ad_MobileInArticle" id="ad_MobileInArticle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">特或重走孤立主義 不管別國</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">倘若特朗普重走孤立主義道路，不啻是放棄戰後國際秩序的重要政策，但他會這麼做嗎？從性格傾向而論，他有此可能。特朗普主張「美國優先」，其他國家是死是活，他興趣不大，要美國出錢「保護」其「盟國」，他甚感吃虧，所以從前有向北約諸國，要求她們增加軍費，自求多福，對台灣他也不認為美國有何防衞責任，若要美國參與，台要交保護費。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">你要他為了全球的氣候而要求國民減少碳排放，他會希望別人減排，但不會叫美國為此而增加經濟營運成本。這是一個看重私利的人，不會為世界「和平」而要美國付出代價。從這意義上，如有需要，他不會介意用「美國優先」的口號走孤立主義。況且美國人民對世界大事的關注，一般遠不如本土的事務，是否當世界救世主，並不很重要。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">但就算特朗普真有此意，形格勢禁，他真的做得到嗎？這要從本土經濟利益與錯綜的國際關係上去考慮。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美國經濟上有幾個極難解決的問題。眾所周知，美國國力柱石之一正是美元霸權，自</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">70<span lang="ZH-TW">年代中，石油以美元計價後，美國從</span>1976<span lang="ZH-TW">年開始，貿易從未出現過盈餘，原因是她可以靠印鈔票去購買外國商品與服務。美國人民的總需求（消費加投資）變成永久性地大於她的總產值，這是享受慣了，驕縱出來的習慣，不易更改。需求大於生產，額外的消費品便只能是靠外國供給，這便是貿易赤字的來源，填補貿赤這缺口便是靠自印鈔票及向外國借錢。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">另一問題是過去幾十年經濟全球化，各國發揮自己的比較優勢生產，美國擅長芯片設計、人工智能等高新科技，一般製造業卻競爭不過別人，現時民用產品幾乎全靠從中國進口，美國已失去產能，若走孤立主義，與世界經濟脫鈎，美國便只能費時失事用多年時間高昂的成本重建其民生產業。中國亦因從美國買不到芯片而自力更生，從美國的顧客被迫變為美國的競爭者，美國何其愚蠢也！</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">大加關稅圖脫鈎 是自殘行為</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美元霸權本來對美國十分有利，包括中國在內的多個國家也因有一個穩定的支付貨幣與國際儲備貨幣而得好處。不過，美國便是喜歡鋒芒畢露，事事賺到盡，不去保護美元的公信力，反而把美元霸權作為工具去威脅其他國家，充公俄羅斯的儲備，制裁伊朗等政策大大地使人對美元產生戒心，若各國日漸找尋美元的代替品，美元能替美國帶來的利益亦會縮減，這倒是可能迫使美國在金融上更脫離國際化，美國人民長期享受到的消費大於生產，會日漸消失。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">在經濟領域上，美國搞孤立主義，大加關稅，意圖與世界脫鈎，重建本土民生產業，是自殘的行為，搞不下去的。不過，在國際政治上，美國少理會其他國家事項，卻是有好處。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">俄烏戰爭特朗普會希望把它終結，他不支持烏克蘭打下去，便有莫大效果。不過，美國撤出也會討些好處的。《福布斯》估計過，烏克蘭有優質的資產，主要是鐵礦與煤炭，其價值約值</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">14.5<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億美元，美國的資產管理巨企貝萊德集團（</span>Black Rock<span lang="ZH-TW">）早已虎視眈眈，烏克蘭的前景恐怕不妙，失去一部分土地，大量人口早已逃難不回來，國家資源亦會因還債而被美國資本家謀奪。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美不再當「警察」 世界或變美好</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">以色列與巴勒斯坦問題，對美國是個泥沼，被以色列拖了下去，無法自拔。猶太財團影響力巨大，特朗普不易脫身。此類國際事務所造成的困境，源於美國事事俱管，世界警察做得走火入魔，從自稱的和平穩定者變為各國厭惡的惡霸，若美國下定決心，不多管閒事，世界會變得更好，美國也可省回大筆軍費，對其經濟有利。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: #F4F4F4; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; orphans: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">理想的局面是國際事務上美國不再以霸主自居，管好自己國內事務便可，經濟上則繼續保持開放，自由貿易，美元地位更可保持。</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt;">但中短期内，美國更可能反其道而行，经济上更封闭，國際事務仍不愿收手，折腾一番才会退缩。</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">要美國體會「人類命運共同體」的優點，並不容易，她當霸主習慣了，要很長時間才會適應。</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt;">特朗普要折腾多久才会领悟，我们只能拭目以待。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; letter-spacing: .7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2024-11-15)</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>11/08/2024</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2024/11/blog-post_8.html'>瘋癲「狂人」再主白宮 前因後果 (雷鼎鳴)</a>
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<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">執筆時，美國大選數票仍未結束，但民主黨候選人賀錦麗（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Kamala Harris<span lang="ZH-TW">）大勢已去，共和黨總統候選人特朗普（</span>Donald
Trump<span lang="ZH-TW">）應能以壓倒性的選舉人票數入主白宮。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">這結果對我來說，毫不奇怪。今年</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2<span lang="ZH-TW">月</span>23<span lang="ZH-TW">日，我在本欄刊出的</span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><a href="https://paper.hket.com/article/3710767/?r=petqr01" target="blank"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: #cc0022; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">《假如特朗普再當選總統》</span></a></span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">中便鐵筆論定，特朗普有八、九成機會勝選。我這麼說當然並非因為對特朗普情有獨鍾，而是民主黨太過差勁，不但沒有能力把上任特朗普留下的爛攤子整頓出一番新氣象，反而還錯上加錯，替美國及世界帶來更大、時間更長的傷害。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">特朗普的胡來，美國選民應尚未忘記，但民主黨過去</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">4<span lang="ZH-TW">年的錯誤，更是新鮮，對選情影響更大。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">民主黨未撥亂反正 反錯上加錯</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">本來以特朗普的離譜，民主黨的拜登（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Joe Biden<span lang="ZH-TW">）與賀錦麗只要能稍為撥亂反正，已是可得到清譽，留名汗青，但他們就是沒有這麼做，反而在內政與國際關係上都走上錯誤路綫，累己累人。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">內政上，民主黨因深受美國「白左」思潮的影響，政策日漸走火入魔。正如</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Tesla<span lang="ZH-TW">創辦人馬斯克（</span>Elon Musk<span lang="ZH-TW">）所言，民主黨把一切都合法化，國將不國。本來可自稱是美國首善之區的加州搶掠不用坐牢，以致出現「零元購」。旅遊聖地的三藩市市中心，也被癮君子露宿者佔據。有些州出現法律，尚是兒童的兒女希望動手術改變性別，父母不得干涉。非法移民大量湧入美國，民主黨政府並無能力阻止。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">政府花霍無度，欠債已達</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">35<span lang="ZH-TW">萬億美元，等於每名美國嬰兒，一出生便已負上</span>10<span lang="ZH-TW">萬美元的潛在欠債，而這筆債款，繼續增加的勢頭依然強勁。美國的媒體，向為猶太財團控制，較親民主黨，不滿特朗普，但其在人民中的信任度，竟跌至不足</span>20%<span lang="ZH-TW">。上述諸種問題，不一定與賀錦麗有直接關係，但她顯然早被歸入「白左」陣營，美國人民對此應看得清楚。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">俄烏以巴戰火未止 拜遺禍更大</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">民主黨的外交政策，比內政遺禍更大。以色列政府似已成為美國政府的實際操控者，前者在加沙對巴勒斯坦人民狂轟濫炸，赤祼祼的搞種族滅絕，美國政府不但不加谴责，以色列總理內塔尼亞胡（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Benjamin Netanyahu<span lang="ZH-TW">）到美國國會演說時還受到英雄式歡迎。這怎能不使愛好和平，擔心巴勒斯坦人民生命安全的人感到「我哭豺狼笑」？</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">拜登／賀錦麗政府的選向，不但使美國在世界人民面前空前孤立，也連累了世上眾多愛好和平的猶太人。俄烏戰爭依然在打，但形勢已是顯然，烏克蘭一方必遭慘敗。此種悲劇的根源是美國政府多次違反對俄的承諾，鼓動北約東擴，以圖把瞄向俄羅斯的導彈布置在俄烏邊境。拜登判斷力差勁，以為俄羅斯經濟撑不住，但事與願違，反而是歐洲諸國受不了。民主黨政府看似與歐洲修好，補回特朗普的破壞，但實際上，卻是把歐洲推向經濟深淵。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">現在特朗普重新上台，情況會否好轉？特朗普此人瘋瘋癲癲，十分神經刀，難以預測。此事有壞處亦有好處，壞處是他的政策往往無甚理性，他發動的貿易戰對美國已帶來重大損害，亦無法降低美國的貿赤（美國經濟若是衰退，消費倒會減少，貿赤也會下降，但這不是特朗普的目標），這幾乎是主流經濟學界的共識。他對中國，損人害己的關稅戰、科技戰、金融戰等，恐怕不會停止，直至美國自己受不了為止。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">特政策無理性 惟俄烏有望停火</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">俄烏戰爭特朗普倒是有能力終結，他宣布不支持烏克蘭便可，他自己也不用負上責任，只是把責任都賴在拜登身上便可以脫身。北約的歐洲成員自己愚蠢，把自己陷了進去，變成大輸家，咎由自取。但經此役，可看到緊跟美國不是辦法，歐盟委員會主席馮德萊恩（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Ursula von der Leyen<span lang="ZH-TW">）之輩或會逐漸失勢。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">以色列對巴勒斯坦人民的屠殺，卻不一定因特朗普上台而終結。特朗普與猶太財團控制的傳媒關係不好是一回事，這也許與美國的軍工綜合體及猶太金主感到特朗普不易控制有關。但我們不可忘記，曾在中情局當局長、軍工綜合體的重要代理人蓬佩奧（</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Mike Pompeo<span lang="ZH-TW">）曾被特朗普委任為國務卿。此君為好戰反華分子，曾「鬼拍後尾枕」，自爆中情局的工作是「我們說謊、我們欺騙、我們偷竊！」此事說明，在勢力龐大的軍工綜合體壓力下，特朗普一樣會就範。他不喜戰爭，在任內也沒有發動過戰爭，但將來是否仍有此定力，我們只能拭目以待。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">上次特朗普被選為總統時，世界輿論已有質疑，為何美式「民主」制度會在人才濟濟的美國選出這樣的奇葩？他下台後，不少「西式民主」的衞道者鬆了一口氣，可</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">辩</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">說其制度有自我矯正能力。但現在他又當選，這如何是好？西方的政治經濟影響力早在下降，其制度也不會太受重視了。</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">報 </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Microsoft YaHei";">2024-11-8)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .7pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>11/07/2024</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2024/11/blog-post_7.html'>在我看来，这几位中国学者更有资格拿诺贝尔经济学奖</a>
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<p> </p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: #8590a6;">编者按：</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: #8590a6;">10<span lang="ZH-CN">月</span>19<span lang="ZH-CN">日，《中国的奇迹》出版</span>30<span lang="ZH-CN">周年座谈会，暨建构中国资助的经济学知识体系研讨会在上海大学举办。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: #8590a6;"><span lang="ZH-CN"><br /></span></span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: #8590a6;">1993<span lang="ZH-CN">年，改革开放已经走了</span>15<span lang="ZH-CN">年的中国，每年以</span>9.7%<span lang="ZH-CN">的高增长快速前进，这样的成就对一个人口超</span>10<span lang="ZH-CN">亿的转型期国家而言，在人类史上前所未有。然而世界银行</span>1993<span lang="ZH-CN">年发布的《东亚奇迹》报告却对此视而不见。于是三位中国的经济学者林毅夫、蔡昉、李周提笔写下了《中国的奇迹》，并于</span>1994<span lang="ZH-CN">年出版。</span>30<span lang="ZH-CN">年来，他们对中国经济的分析和预测应验了。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: #8590a6;"><span lang="ZH-CN"><br /></span></span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: #8590a6;">10<span lang="ZH-CN">年前，观察者网在</span></span><a href="http://www.guancha.cn/dishuilakeconference" target="_blank"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: #bd0509;">上海滴水湖</span></a><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: #8590a6;">参加《中国的奇迹》出版</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: #8590a6;">20<span lang="ZH-CN">周年学术研讨会，为读者朋友们带来学者们的精彩辩论。</span>10<span lang="ZH-CN">月</span>19<span lang="ZH-CN">日《中国的奇迹》出版</span>30<span lang="ZH-CN">周年，观察者网再次亲临《中国的奇迹》出版</span>30<span lang="ZH-CN">周年学术研讨会。此时的中国经济，正在奇迹的道路盘旋，而美国的三位制度经济学者刚刚新晋诺贝尔经济学奖，引发中国经济学界热烈争议，三十多位经济学家就《中国的奇迹》的自主知识体系探索、诺贝尔经济学奖的局限性，以及中国发展奇迹的成就展开热烈讨论，同时也频频发问，中国奇迹何以可持续？</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: #8590a6;"><span lang="ZH-CN"><br /></span></span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: #8590a6;">观察者网将为读者朋友们奉上此次研讨会的系列精彩言论，本文为第一篇，经作者审核修订后授权观察者网发布。</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: #8590a6;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">【文</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;">/ <span lang="ZH-CN">观察者网专栏作者 雷鼎鸣 整理：观察者网 彭宇萱】</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span lang="ZH-CN"><br /></span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">大家好！我想比较一下林毅夫、蔡昉和李周三位所著的《中国的奇迹》，跟今年拿诺贝尔奖的三位经济学家的理论有什么相同和不同，并评价一下</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;">1994<span lang="ZH-CN">年出版的《中国的奇迹》的贡献。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span lang="ZH-CN"><br /></span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">今年诺贝尔经济学奖授予了三位来自美国大学的经济学家达龙·阿杰姆奥卢、西蒙·约翰逊和詹姆斯·鲁滨逊，以表彰“他们在关于制度如何形成并影响经济繁荣研究领域的突出贡献”。</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">他们理论的核心，其实来源于他们</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;">2001<span lang="ZH-CN">年发表在《美国经济评论》里的一篇文章《比较发展的殖民起源：一项经验考察》（</span>The
Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation<span lang="ZH-CN">），这篇文章被</span>18000<span lang="ZH-CN">多篇文章引用，这是非常可观的数据。很多人都预测他们会拿诺贝尔奖。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span lang="ZH-CN"><br /></span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">他们的著作《国家为何失败：权力、繁荣和贫穷的根源》（</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;">Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty<span lang="ZH-CN">），其核心内容源自</span>2001<span lang="ZH-CN">年的这篇文章，当然其中也加了新的东西，内容比</span>2001<span lang="ZH-CN">年那版更丰富一些。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span lang="ZH-CN"><br /></span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">《中国的奇迹》跟诺贝尔奖得主的研究有共同的优点：基本的起点和基本假设都很简单。简单不是坏事情，是好事情，起点简单才能走得比较远。而且它们想要解决的问题也非常重要，那就是：经济如何繁荣并持续发展下去，制度跟经济增长有什么关系。起点很高，目标也非常宏大，这是两项研究共同的优点。</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">其实还有一点，这三位诺贝尔奖得主的研究在技术创新方面含金量很高，现在很多人很喜欢写技术性很高的文章。而在这方面，《中国的奇迹》的研究对象不太一样，所以应该在技术性方面稍逊一筹。</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">但是《中国的奇迹》最基础的理论刚才讲过，很多人都很熟悉，就是用禀赋结构出发去解析一个国家发展的比较优势等。</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">三位诺贝尔奖得主研究的基本假设是：过去几百年来，欧洲人在全世界很多地方都搞殖民地，但不同殖民地引入的制度不太一样。假如在某一个地方，欧洲人去了，死亡率很高，他们就不愿意在那个地方安家立命。殖民者都是急功近利的，想很快地在这个国家剥削压榨，赚了钱、拿了东西就跑。</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">但是，在另外一些地方，诸如北美洲，加拿大、美国这些地方，他们打算长期停留，所以根据近代西方的记录和他们的说法，引入制度的包容性比较强。但是，是不是制度的包容性非常强这个很难说。我在香港，我也经历过殖民地统治，这是有很大的歧视性的，所以说包容性很强我觉得他们是乱吹的。</span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">第二点，他们所提出的殖民地根源理论比较笼统。不光是我一个人这样认为，比尔·盖茨在看完他们的那本书以后，他也提出了同样的看法。他们所谓引进比较“良好的制度”，什么叫“良好的制度”？他们提出了很多术语，包容性制度、攫取性制度等等。我们也不排除某个国家引入所谓不错的制度以后，会对经济产生负面作用。</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">举一个例子，我们知道曼瑟·奥尔森（</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;">Mancur Olson<span lang="ZH-CN">），他认为在西方民主制度下，非常容易出现利益集团，大家打来打去抢夺资源，对经济增长有很大破坏，西方民主制度也会在贸易方面搞保护主义，跟禀赋结构理论的政治建议是相矛盾的，因为保护主义会对经济增长产生比较负面的作用，所以我觉得在理论方面他们的缺点比较多。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span lang="ZH-CN"><br /></span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">第三点，三位的研究阐述了引进良好的制度会带来经济繁荣，但是他们最终的目标是，阐述西方民主制度是包容性制度</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;">,<span lang="ZH-CN">他们是要证明民主制度对经济增长有利，其实这个论证是有问题的。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span lang="ZH-CN"><br /></span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;">2019<span lang="ZH-CN">年，他们曾在《政治经济学杂志》上发表过一篇文章（</span>Democracy Does
Cause Growth<span lang="ZH-CN">），我仔细读了，觉得挺荒谬的。他们根据</span>Freedom House<span lang="ZH-CN">数据库，给</span>175<span lang="ZH-CN">个国家的民主程度赋分并进行排名，接着干脆把这</span>175<span lang="ZH-CN">个国家和地区分成两类，一类是民主经济体，另一类是非民主经济体。他们使用复杂的计量经济学的方法，发现属于他们认为民主的国家，在其它因素不变的条件下，</span>25<span lang="ZH-CN">年以内</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-CN">比非民主国家高出</span>20%<span lang="ZH-CN">到</span>25%<span lang="ZH-CN">。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span lang="ZH-CN"><br /></span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">当然这也不错，并不是说西方民主制度一无是处，但是</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;">25<span lang="ZH-CN">年的增长才高出</span>20%<span lang="ZH-CN">到</span>25%<span lang="ZH-CN">，太低了吧！我们早习惯了中国的高增长，他们看不见“房间中的大象”，对中国的发展视而不见。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span lang="ZH-CN"><br /></span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">其实很多人批评了他们这篇文章，在他们回归分析里面把</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;">14<span lang="ZH-CN">亿人口的国家，跟几十万人口甚至几万人口的国家同等看待，这在回归分析无法得到准确的结果。本来有更好的方法去处理，但是他们没有这样做。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span lang="ZH-CN"><br /></span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">杰弗里·萨克斯（</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;">Jeffrey Sachs<span lang="ZH-CN">）曾经说过，为什么很多西方经济学家看不到中国的发展？因为他们假设了中国经济很快就会崩溃，崩溃了就影响不了他们的结论，所以他们根本不管。当今中国的实践提出很多问题，跟他们的理论都是相矛盾的，所以他们干脆不理。</span></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span lang="ZH-CN"><br /></span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">第四点，两套理论都留下一个可能，那就是能否复制。如果用禀赋理论解释中国成功的发展经验，理论上别的国家也可以复制中国的经验。同样在理论上，三位诺奖得主研究的经验也可以被复制，而且他们希望别人去复制西方的经验。</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">复制别人的东西不是坏事情，我们不要太封闭，但是两种复制有本质上的不同。因为根据禀赋结构理论，不同的国家有不同的禀赋结构。各国可以根据自己国家不同的禀赋结构，来发展出自己的发展策略，完全复制某一个国家的经验是不行的。但是三位诺贝尔奖得主觉得完全复制西方的经验就能取得西方发达国家的成就，这是典型西方人的思想。</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">我觉得他们的理论和斯坦福大学的弗朗西斯·福山（</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;">Francis Fukuyama<span lang="ZH-CN">）的“历史终结论”差不多，认为西方的发展模式已经完美了，就说你们来学我们吧。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span lang="ZH-CN"><br /></span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">第五点，检验一个理论，最重要是看它的预测能力，而三位诺奖得主的理论预测能力不行。三位诺贝尔奖的得奖者的论文于</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;">2001<span lang="ZH-CN">年发表，假设他们</span>1998<span lang="ZH-CN">年开始注意这个问题，从</span>1998<span lang="ZH-CN">年到</span>2023<span lang="ZH-CN">年的这</span>25<span lang="ZH-CN">年里，根据他们的结论，平均来看，相比没有跟从他们的国家，采用他们认可制度的国家的经济增长要高出</span>20%<span lang="ZH-CN">到</span>25%<span lang="ZH-CN">，差不多每年多增长</span>1%<span lang="ZH-CN">左右。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span lang="ZH-CN"><br /></span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">但是我们可以看到，从</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;">1998<span lang="ZH-CN">年到</span>2023<span lang="ZH-CN">年这</span>25<span lang="ZH-CN">年以内，中国的实际</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-CN">总共上涨了</span>624%<span lang="ZH-CN">，差不多等于他们所说的</span>25<span lang="ZH-CN">倍，而且中国属于他们所认为的非民主国家。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span lang="ZH-CN"><br /></span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">所以这就有两种可能，第一是他们理论完全错误，反差太大了；另外一种情况，他们把中国分类分错了，中国是民主国家，而不是他们所说的非民主国家。</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">因此，按照我刚才所说的几点，我觉得林毅夫、蔡昉和李周更有资格拿诺贝尔奖。</span><span face=""Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>11/01/2024</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2024/11/blog-post.html'>美國亂象 走向蘇維埃式瓦解道路？(雷鼎鳴)</a>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">英國有一位歷史學家叫弗格森（</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">Niall Ferguson<span lang="ZH-TW">），近年已移民美國。根據</span></span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DengXian; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">地</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">在史丹福的胡佛研究所，因為其撰寫的世界評論影響巨大，還被英王冊封為爵士。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">弗格森是一位深受英美主流意識形態影響的學者，強烈支持美西方形式的民主制度，不相信中國經濟可超越美國。但近月他發表的觀點，卻在極度憂心蘇聯式的衰敗會重現江湖。不過，從強轉弱，走向衰敗瓦解的主角，他擔心要換成美國。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">擁護美西方學者 對美顯憂心</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">弗格森的觀點，我很多都不同意。不過，美國究竟是一個成功的國家還是一個失敗，或正走向失敗的國家，卻很值得我們探討，這有利我們對世界未來的判斷更準確。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">世界近</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">200<span lang="ZH-TW">個國家，各自採用不同的制度，國家的成敗，不是完全由制度決定，但制度的重要性顯然是巨大的。我不相信有完美的制度，制度內含的優點及缺點，亦會因歷史環境的改變而顯露或掩蓋起來，若一個國家死抱着一種制度，當其潛藏的缺點日益顯露時，卻缺乏反思與自我矯正，那麼這制度及採用它的國家，走向失敗是可預料之事。反之，有些制度有很強的生命力，可以歷幾千年對社會仍有影響，我們一樣有必要對它們加以注意。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">舉個例子，中國</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">2,000<span lang="ZH-TW">多年封建皇朝政府的制度源自秦國，其郡縣制使全國有效地組織起來，能一層一層從中央指揮到地方，今天中國仍是使用這制度。一般以為，秦國的成功可歸功或歸罪於商鞅的變法，但其實早在商鞅的「連坐法」實施前</span>19<span lang="ZH-TW">年，秦獻公已出現此法，而向獻公提出者正是主張防禦的墨子及其傳人。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">墨家因為要替他們守護的國家有效抵抗戰爭，除了發明了不少防禦工具外，還主張「尚同」思想，即下級意見要緊隨長官，全國一層一層，從</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">5<span lang="ZH-TW">人一組的「伍」開始直至國君皆如是。墨子認為若不如此，則「天下之亂，若禽獸然」。我們或許不同意緊跟長官，但卻不能否認就算在今天，尤其是在面對嚴重的外部挑戰時，「尚同」思想能頗有效地統一人民思想，把整個國家的資源組織起來，共抗外敵。一個國家成功或失敗，往往不在於其制度說來可否天花亂墜，而是有無實效，黑貓白貓，捉到老鼠便是好貓。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">回到美國，她的制度在歷史上絕非一成不變，否則她未必可生存到今天。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">1776<span lang="ZH-TW">年發表使人心情激盪的《獨立宣言》時，其實連憲法也沒有，在</span>1777<span lang="ZH-TW">年只有一份</span>5<span lang="ZH-TW">頁紙的《邦聯條例》，得到</span>13<span lang="ZH-TW">州認可。但當時美國人的主流思想是不想聯邦政府有重大權力，連總統也無實權，只是在國會開會時坐上主席位過過癮而已。聯邦政府最缺的便是向國民徵稅的權力，各州對替聯邦政府徵稅也無甚共識。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">美政府欠債利息 超軍費開支</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">此事的改變，是在</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">1789<span lang="ZH-TW">年重寫的一份全新《憲法》之後，此法大大的增強了總統的權力，最重要的是聯邦政府可直接向人民徵稅及徵收貿易關稅。此事本與《獨立宣言》所聲稱的人民生而平等、可追求自由等理念不相符，若非強制，誰會願意向政府交稅？《憲法》立法前受到的阻力巨大，它能勉強通過，一是因開國之父之一、經濟天才咸美頓（</span>Alexander
Hamilton<span lang="ZH-TW">）的策略，他知道當時各州盡皆欠債纍纍，便建議聯邦政府替各州政府的債務包底，但必須給聯邦政府徵稅權。二是因為有幾位「名筆」，在報章上寫了</span>85<span lang="ZH-TW">篇傳世的《聯邦人文獻》（</span>Federalist </span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">P</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">apers<span lang="ZH-TW">），為憲法與反憲法者作了激烈的筆戰。若無中央統攬大權，這</span>13<span lang="ZH-TW">個組織散漫的小州，根本不可能進行多場戰爭，把美國本土大幅擴大，獲取大量資源。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">到了今天，曾經非常成功及強盛的美國，雖然基本制度與</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">200<span lang="ZH-TW">年前大致相同，甚至更多人民獲得投票權，但衰象已呈，弗格森曾撰文羅列了一大堆。例如在某些貧窮地區，嬰兒死亡率已上升至每千人有</span>13<span lang="ZH-TW">人夭折。從前政府財政赤字高於本地生產總值（</span>GDP<span lang="ZH-TW">）</span>2%<span lang="ZH-TW">已是警號，現在已高於</span>5%<span lang="ZH-TW">，</span>30<span lang="ZH-TW">年後估計會上升至</span>8.5%<span lang="ZH-TW">。現時聯邦政府每年償還欠債的利息，已高於其冠絕全球的軍費開支。此種欠債利息的開支不可免地會壓縮美國的軍費，這對世界是好事，但弗格森卻已在擔心美國將來打不過中國了。</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">美人民對國家制度 已失信任</span></b><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">現實的嚴酷，利益集團各為其私利所造成的損傷，一早已被美國經濟學家奧爾森（</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">Mancur Olson<span lang="ZH-TW">）所預言到，但更要命是直接侵害了美國人的自信與活力。據弗格森引用的數據，美國人民與蘇聯解體前十分相似，對本國的各種制度都失去信任！最高法院、銀行、公立學校、總統都分數甚低。傳媒信任度低於</span>20%<span lang="ZH-TW">，國會信任度低於</span>8%<span lang="ZH-TW">。現時外強中乾，與蘇聯何其相似！</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: #F4F4F4; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 15.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">美國變得如此「國之不國」、「民之不民」，弗格森歸罪為美國左翼思潮氾濫，美國的「民主」制度，對此種思潮並無足夠防禦力。</span><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.7pt;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">香港經濟日</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: white; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">報 </span><span style="background: white; font-family: STSong; font-size: 12pt;">2024-11-1)</span> </p>
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<h2 class='date-header'><span>10/25/2024</span></h2>
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<a href='http://francis-lui.blogspot.com/2024/10/blog-post_25.html'>《中國的奇迹》揭秘 突破諾獎盲點 （雷鼎鳴）</a>
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<p> <span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 17px;">上周末我在上海大學參加一個學術會議，是為紀念林毅夫、蔡昉、李周所著的《中國的奇迹》一書出版30年而舉辦的。此書在世界及中國都影響甚大，很多國家以此書理論為藍圖，破解中國經濟增長為甚麼這麼快、這麼持久。</span></p><p class="p2" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 22px;"><span class="s1" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody;"></span><br /></p><p class="p1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleEmphasizedBody; font-weight: bold;">林毅夫等著作 破解快速增長之謎</span></p><p class="p2" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 22px;"><span class="s1" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody;"></span><br /></p><p class="p1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: autResolver
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